Month-End Rally, Softer Dollar & High Fed-Cut Odds Set the Tone for December
Global equities finished November on firmer ground despite a major CME futures outage and lingering AI-valuation jitters. Fed-funds futures now price a high probability of a December rate cut, the dollar index has slipped back below 100, gold is near record territory, and oil is stabilising ahead of an OPEC+ meeting and renewed Ukraine-Russia ceasefire efforts.
Today's Snapshot
- S&P 500 (28 Nov): 6,849.09 (+0.5%)
- Nasdaq Composite (28 Nov): 23,365.69 (+0.7%)
- Dow Jones (28 Nov): 47,716.42 (+0.6%)
- CBOE VIX (28 Nov): ~16
- U.S. 10-yr Treasury yield: 4.02% (+2 bps)
- Brent crude: $63.29/bbl
- WTI crude: $59.03/bbl (+0.7%)
- Spot gold: ~$4,220/oz (+1.5%)
- U.S. Dollar Index: ~99.5 (-0.6% weekly)
Market Note
U.S. markets operated on a holiday schedule due to Thanksgiving, resulting in reduced liquidity. The latest verified closing data reflects 28 November levels; pre-holiday positioning and futures activity drove most of the late-week price action.
Global Markets
United States
The S&P 500 added 0.5%, the Nasdaq +0.7%, and the Dow +0.6% in thin post-holiday trade. Fed-cut odds rose to roughly 85-87% on softer data and dovish Fed communication. Black Friday spending held up despite the CME outage disruption.
Europe
The STOXX 600 traded near 574 and held a fifth consecutive month of gains. Banks cooled after a strong run, while energy and miners were supported by firmer commodities. Sentiment was helped by ceasefire progress and a softer dollar.
Asia
The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index slipped 0.3% on Friday but ended the week +2.7%. Japan and Korea gained on stable yields, while China and Hong Kong were mixed on soft PMIs. Early Monday saw yen strength (¥155-156) on BoJ-hike speculation, with Hang Seng opening over +1%.
Asset-Class Highlights
Equities
- S&P 500: 6,849.09 (+0.5% Friday; ~+11% YTD)
- Nasdaq: 23,365.69 (+0.7% Friday; -1.5% in November amid AI/tech de-rating)
- Alphabet outperformed on Gemini-AI enthusiasm; Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir saw drawdowns
- STOXX 600: ~574 (-0.1% Friday; positive on the month)
- MSCI Asia ex-Japan: -0.3% Friday; +2.7% weekly
- Japan 2-yr JGB yield: 1.01% (highest since 2008)
FX
- DXY: ~99.5 (worst week since July)
- EUR/USD: ~$1.16
- GBP/USD: low $1.31s
- USD/JPY: ¥155-156
The dollar is rolling over as weaker U.S. data and clearer Fed-cut expectations pull carry flows into the euro, sterling, and select high-beta FX.
Rates & Credit
- U.S. 10-yr: 4.02% (+1.7 bps Friday)
- U.S. 2-yr: 3.50% (+1.4 bps)
- Futures price nearly one full 25 bp cut at the December FOMC, with additional easing probability through early 2026
- Japan 2-yr JGB: 1.01% as the market leans into a potential BoJ hike
Credit spreads have stabilised after November's widening.
Commodities
- Brent: $63.29/bbl (-0.1% Friday); early Asia ~+1%
- WTI: $59.03/bbl (+0.7% Friday); early Asia ~+1%
- OPEC+ kept output unchanged for Q1 2026; supply concerns remain from Caspian pipeline disruption and U.S.-Venezuela tensions
- Gold: ~$4,220/oz (+1.5% Friday; on track for monthly gains)
- Copper and base metals were broadly firmer on supply disruptions and improved sentiment
Crypto (Brief)
Bitcoin and ether both fell over 5% in early Monday Asia trade. Futures softened, and the CME outage highlighted infrastructure fragilities.
Volatility & Positioning
The VIX sat near 16, well below the early-month spike to its highest since April. Options markets show steady protection demand, and positioning data suggests investors are trimming USD longs while adding gold and Treasury duration ahead of the December Fed meeting.
What Traders Are Watching
- December FOMC: ~85-87% odds of a 25 bp cut; ISM, labour data, and Fed speakers will guide positioning.
- Bank of Japan: Yen strength and higher JGB yields reflect rising expectations of a possible year-end hike.
- OPEC+ & energy risk: Q1 output steady, but sensitive to ceasefire talks and pipeline disruptions.
- CME outage fallout: Attention on market-structure resilience into year-end.
- U.S. holiday spending: Early Black Friday data up ~9% YoY; consumer caution persists on jobs and prices.
“In thin markets, price noise can be louder than the signal — position size is your volume control.”
Yesterday's Market Recap — Friday, 28 Nov 2025
U.S. equities closed higher despite the CME futures outage. The S&P 500 added 0.5% to 6,849.09, Nasdaq +0.7% to 23,365.69, and Dow +0.6% to 47,716.42. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.02%, gold sat ~$4,220/oz, and Brent traded near $63/bbl. December rate-cut odds settled in the mid-80s with the dollar below 100.
Read full recap →Sources
- Reuters — Global markets, U.S. closing levels, Treasuries, dollar, commodities
- AP News — U.S. stocks, market volatility, sector moves, Fed commentary
- Reuters — Asia markets, JGB yields, OPEC+, Black Friday data
- Reuters — European markets, STOXX 600, FX & budget coverage
- Bloomberg — CME outage, market structure, VIX & volatility insights
Disclaimer
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